February 2011
You will all be aware and no doubt tired of the many seemingly
conflicting reports about property prices that have been produced
over the last 12 months. One week the newspapers are telling us
that prices in a certain area have shot up over the last 12 months
and that average prices in general are on the rise only to be told
the next week by another publication that the exact opposite is in
fact the case.
We are constantly receiving figures from the either Nationwide
or Halifax plc that appear to fly in the face of figures produced
locally but that should not come as a surprise. The Nationwide
figures are derived from Nationwide's own lending data and we
should bear in mind that a very low percentage of their overall
lending relates to property in Scotland. The same applies to the
likes of the Halifax plc.
If you are looking for the best indicator of where the market is
at present then look at the statistics produced by your local
Solicitors Property Centre. These figures are based on what is
happening now and what is happening locally and are therefore far
more relevant.
However, one more word of caution! In a market that is
both smaller and slower than we are used to, figures can be far
more easily influenced by the sale of one or two larger properties
over a short period of time and it is sensible therefore to look
only at average prices taken over a longer period.
Taking all of the above into account the ESPC have just produced
figures for 2010 that show an overall reduction in average prices
of "like for like" properties over the year of around 5% and the
experts are predicting that a further reduction of between 3-5% can
be expected in 2011. Inflation continues to rise and there is more
and more talk of the Bank of England giving in to pressure to put
interest rates up. In other words, in real terms, people's income
is falling and there is nothing to indicate that this is going to
be anything other than a flat period for the property market.
On the plus side there hasn't been a better time to buy
property. ESPC figures currently tell us that 3 out of 4 Fixed
Price properties are failing to achieve that Fixed Price. The power
is in the hands of the buyer at the moment. We mustn't forget
however that for those of you who were lucky enough to have bought
your property over 5 years ago you will still receive a good return
on your investment and for those of us who may not sell at the
price we were hoping will also be able to pay less than we have
anticipated for our next property.
